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How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for S www.foresight.org/Conferences/MNT05/Papers/Gubrud/index.html
A view of conflict and its strategic environment two decades ahead. Author: C.J. Dick. Published by The Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK, 2002. www.csrc.ac.uk/pdfs/M25-cjd.pdf
States the difference between the conduct of war and the nature of war, and its practical consequences in the information age. Author: James M.Dubik, Landpower Essay, Institute of Landwarfare, July 2002. www.ausa.org/PDFdocs/lpe02-3.pdf
The Pentagon's aim is to meld weapons systems and people into a whole, called network-centric warfare, that's greater than the sum of its parts. From Business Week Online, January 2003. www.businessweek.com/../../../../..
Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation. Opinion article by J. Arquilla and D. Ronfeldt, Aviation Week & Space Technolo www.rand.org/commentary/100703AWST.html
Collection of articles about doctrine of future types and causes of warfare, future threats of security environment, short-term future challenges for possible local war, and long-term future warfare from the point of view of several Chinese authors. Publi www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/ndu/chinview/chinacont.html
The changes required in US military to cope with the set of challenges that the early 21st will pose, by Glenn C. Buchan, RAND, for the Conference on Analyzing Conflict: Insights from the Natural and Social Sciences, UCLA, April 2003. fac.cgu.edu/~zakp/conferences/AC/papers/Buchan.pdf
Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002. www.fpri.org/../..
The zigzag evolution of chemical and biological weapons in the 20th century give causes for both optimism and pessimism in the course it will take in the 21st, by Greg Goebel, Jun 2003. www.vectorsite.net/twgas5.html
Postulates that today's global environment is defined by the 4th Generation War reality, with nation-states confronting criminal enterprises, fanatical opportunists, and terrorists whose gang-like networks transcend national boundaries. All these actors o d-n-i.net/fcs/comments/c490.htm
Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and www.cdi.org/mrp/4GW.cfm
An assessment of future security environment for 2025, by Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., National Defense University, McNair Paper 62, 2000. www.ndu.edu/inss/McNair/mcnair62/m62cvr.html
Analyzes the weakness and failure of nation-states as a potential source of future conflicts. Essay by Robert Rotberg, for NIC 2020 Project, Inaugural Workshop, November 2003. www.odci.gov/../../2003_11_06_papers/panel2_nov6.pdf
The article shows how the end of the Cold War created a new-world order and presented new challenges for future leaders, such as countering the ever growing terrorist threat. Accompanying this threat is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, now www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cpc-pubs/dickinson.htm
The article describes the state of chaos of the post-Cold War world, with a steady increase of entropy and anomie, and a crisis of former models of leadership. Also, analyzes the nature of future conflicts and the role of United States and Europe as key p www.centrotocqueville.org.ar/htm/htm/nab/nb10050401in.htm
Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think w www.harvardmagazine.com/on-line/050218.html
Remarks by John Gannon from the National Intelligence Council to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, about the globalization of the security environment and the implications for counterproliferation, May 2000. www.nti.org/e_research/official_docs/cia/53100CIA.pdf
A report about the future consequences of water scarcity worldwide. It states the urgency of confronting the potential crisis and conflicts on all fronts, from research to policy and action. By Panel on Biotechnology of the World Commission on Water for t www.worldwatercouncil.org/Vision/Documents/Biotech-report.PDF
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